The NIH is creating a test for the Flu virus The incidence of a Flu is low 2 percent in the general population There is a trial

Question

The NIH is creating a test for the Flu virus The incidence of a Flu is low 2 percent in the general population There is a trial version but it sometimes misses the disease The probability of a false negative is 3 percent Similarly someone who does not have the Flu will sometimes get a positive reading The probability of this is 30 percent Fill in the tree diagram and Answer in percent to 2 decimal places Marginal Probabilities P D P no D Conditional Probabilities P positive D P negative D P positive no D False negative False Positive Joint Probabilities P D and positive P D and negative P no D and positive P negative no D Calculate the probability that a positive test result means someone has the Flu P no D and negative

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